Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.23 – 165.29

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±13.3

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 98.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 23.99Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 30.67Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.4 ±11.6

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 66.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 46.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 52.47Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6619, 5728, 3669

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6619, 5728, 3669

Auto

29.9 20%

Teleop

82.9 55%

Endgame

37.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 253, 5274, 8016

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 253, 5274, 8016

Auto

32.8 20%

Teleop

88.0 55%

Endgame

40.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.2pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.1
Score range: 125–193
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.1Season APEX255.4

29.9Auto32.8

82.9Teleop88

37.8Endgame40.2

53Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	120	86
endgame	43	41
foul	0	0
total	206	161

Result

Final score

206 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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