Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.08 – 180.08

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±11.7

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 108.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 12.55Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 46.03Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.9 ±12.2

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 31.16Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 31.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 116.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7667, 9114, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7667, 9114, 1072

Auto

36.7 22%

Teleop

64.4 38%

Endgame

66.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5728, 751, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5728, 751, 2135

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

115.3 61%

Endgame

47.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.1pts

Blue projected score180.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 142–205
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.3Season APEX251.9

36.7Auto26.9

64.4Teleop115.3

66.9Endgame47.1

3Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	25
teleop	123	52
endgame	42	45
foul	0	15
total	201	137

Result

Final score

201 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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