Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.86 – 120.2

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±12.2

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 14.13Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 44.34Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 112.39Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422 ±10.5

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 107.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -2.95Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 15.55Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5430, 5274, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 5274, 8048

Auto

40.9 25%

Teleop

94.1 57%

Endgame

30.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 5924, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 5924, 6662

Auto

44.0 37%

Teleop

72.3 61%

Endgame

1.8 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score120.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.7
Score range: 95–196
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.7Season APEX422

40.9Auto44

94.1Teleop72.3

30.2Endgame1.8

57Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	75	61
endgame	8	24
foul	0	0
total	106	118

Result

Final score

106 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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