Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.36 – 182.25

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±12.8

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 26.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 41.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 92.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±11.7

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 53.37Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 77.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 51.82Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9114, 8404, 7137

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9114, 8404, 7137

Auto

26.5 17%

Teleop

70.1 45%

Endgame

58.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3669, 1967, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3669, 1967, 1072

Auto

31.2 19%

Teleop

102.1 61%

Endgame

35.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.4pts

Blue projected score182.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.9
Score range: 134–207
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX359.2

26.5Auto31.2

70.1Teleop102.1

58.9Endgame35.3

3Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	50
teleop	32	42
endgame	40	33
foul	0	0
total	81	125

Result

Final score

81 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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