Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.11 – 103.17

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538 ±10.5

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 56.15Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 117.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 119.89Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.8

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 2.21Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 100.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 0.2Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1458, 8, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1458, 8, 2135

Auto

54.8 19%

Teleop

188.7 64%

Endgame

49.3 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3482, 7667, 8840

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3482, 7667, 8840

Auto

24.5 25%

Teleop

45.5 46%

Endgame

29.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.1pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.9
Score range: 78–318
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538Season APEX258.2

54.8Auto24.5

188.7Teleop45.5

49.3Endgame29

36Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	29
teleop	173	76
endgame	39	64
foul	0	0
total	254	169

Result

Final score

254 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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