Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.1 – 246.24

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 1.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±12.7

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 28.05Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 28.14Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 8.91Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±12.2

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 156.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX -5.26Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 852, 3189, 5430

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 3189, 5430

Auto

19.1 27%

Teleop

29.0 41%

Endgame

22.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5507, 10212, 6619

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5507, 10212, 6619

Auto

51.0 22%

Teleop

134.5 57%

Endgame

50.7 21%

Strengths

· 5507 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.1pts

Blue projected score246.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.1
Score range: 40–271
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168Season APEX398.8

19.1Auto51

29Teleop134.5

22.3Endgame50.7

49Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	38
teleop	27	169
endgame	18	40
foul	0	0
total	63	247

Result

Final score

63 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 1.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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