Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.63 – 175.94

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±12.7

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 16.51Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 36.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX -0.13Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.6 ±11.7

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 118.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 19.2Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 37.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9125, 2141, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9125, 2141, 11463

Auto

7.7 18%

Teleop

20.5 49%

Endgame

13.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8048, 701, 5728

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8048, 701, 5728

Auto

43.2 26%

Teleop

99.7 60%

Endgame

24.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.6pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.3
Score range: 28–201
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.3Season APEX324.6

7.7Auto43.2

20.5Teleop99.7

13.5Endgame24.2

50Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	35
teleop	12	68
endgame	13	20
foul	0	0
total	35	123

Result

Final score

35 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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