Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.33 – 62.5

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±12.1

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 11.15Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 17.47Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 60.71Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.7 ±12.2

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 33.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 8.75Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 20.14Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5924, 11463, 1458

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 11463, 1458

Auto

23.6 28%

Teleop

48.2 57%

Endgame

13.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 852, 2288, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 2288, 6662

Auto

21.3 33%

Teleop

23.4 36%

Endgame

20.7 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 35–117
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.9Season APEX207.7

23.6Auto21.3

48.2Teleop23.4

13.4Endgame20.7

1Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	21	29
endgame	3	17
foul	0	0
total	37	72

Result

Final score

37 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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