Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.67 – 156.23

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±12.8

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 82.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 99.11Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -6.68Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±12.2

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -11.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 101.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 66.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4159, 8048, 3482

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4159, 8048, 3482

Auto

23.8 14%

Teleop

109.8 63%

Endgame

39.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8840, 6619, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 6619, 1967

Auto

39.1 27%

Teleop

90.3 63%

Endgame

15.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.7pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 130–201
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.4Season APEX318.1

23.8Auto39.1

109.8Teleop90.3

39.8Endgame15

170Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	44
teleop	137	137
endgame	23	20
foul	45	0
total	247	201

Result

Final score

247 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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