Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.4 – 170.81

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±13.9

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 7.82Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 54.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 15.27Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±11

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 47.98Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 74.92Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 47.91Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10212, 5728, 9125

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10212, 5728, 9125

Auto

24.8 29%

Teleop

43.3 50%

Endgame

17.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5274, 7137, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5274, 7137, 1072

Auto

44.3 29%

Teleop

87.8 57%

Endgame

21.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score170.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.4
Score range: 51–197
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.4Season APEX352.2

24.8Auto44.3

43.3Teleop87.8

17.7Endgame21.7

40Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	18
teleop	4	112
endgame	16	67
foul	0	0
total	30	197

Result

Final score

30 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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