Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.16 – 226.53

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±12.2

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 17.93Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 75.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 83.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±12.8

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 20.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 40.84Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 165.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9114, 1458, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9114, 1458, 8048

Auto

34.6 21%

Teleop

96.4 60%

Endgame

31.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5430, 8404, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 8404, 5507

Auto

34.0 18%

Teleop

110.4 57%

Endgame

49.0 25%

Strengths

· 5507 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score226.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.4
Score range: 152–252
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.7Season APEX282.6

34.6Auto34

96.4Teleop110.4

31Endgame49

92Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	33
teleop	116	103
endgame	58	78
foul	0	5
total	212	219

Result

Final score

212 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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