Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.6 – 242.18

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.8 ±13.3

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 28.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 25.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 31.96Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±11.2

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 120.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 115.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 6.23Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8404, 8840, 3189

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8404, 8840, 3189

Auto

24.6 29%

Teleop

42.5 50%

Endgame

17.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 8048, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8, 8048, 10212

Auto

56.6 24%

Teleop

143.0 60%

Endgame

37.2 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.6pts

Blue projected score242.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.6
Score range: 58–270
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.8Season APEX550.4

24.6Auto56.6

42.5Teleop143

17.6Endgame37.2

56Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	61
teleop	30	126
endgame	24	12
foul	0	0
total	72	199

Result

Final score

72 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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