Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0.38 – 112.75

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.5 ±12.2

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 17.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -27.1Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 9.91Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±12.7

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 45.16Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 10.2Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 57.39Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6662, 8840, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 8840, 11463

Auto

3.2 0%

Teleop

-10.5 100%

Endgame

6.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2141, 8016, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 8016, 4159

Auto

28.4 27%

Teleop

53.4 50%

Endgame

24.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score0.4pts

Blue projected score112.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.4
Score range: -25–138
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.5Season APEX229.2

3.2Auto28.4

-10.5Teleop53.4

6Endgame24.5

214Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	5	145
endgame	0	37
foul	0	0
total	20	210

Result

Final score

20 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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