Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.06 – 94.03

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±13.3

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 50.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 24.18Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 3.82Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±12.7

3669CarbonKnights

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 31.71Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 0.46Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 61.86Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5458, 7777, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 7777, 10212

Auto

28.4 31%

Teleop

64.5 71%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3669, 852, 1458

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3669, 852, 1458

Auto

36.6 46%

Teleop

36.1 46%

Endgame

6.4 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score94pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 52–120
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.1Season APEX209.1

28.4Auto36.6

64.5Teleop36.1

-2.3Endgame6.4

34Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	26	98
endgame	30	38
foul	0	0
total	75	156

Result

Final score

75 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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