Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
25.33 – 118.91
24%76%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
140 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 85.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 24.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 26Event APEX -14.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 14.84Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.9 ±12.7
Season APEX 52Event APEX 60.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -15.6Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 73.72Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4159, 5430, 9114
15
/ 100 compatProjected
25.3 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4159, 5430, 9114
Auto
24.3 75%
Teleop
11.2 35%
Endgame
-3.1 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2141, 5924, 5728
62
/ 100 compatProjected
118.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2141, 5924, 5728
Auto
31.2 27%
Teleop
65.5 57%
Endgame
17.8 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.05
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score25.3pts
Blue projected score118.9pts
Red win probability24%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -93.6
- Score range
- 0–144
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
161.1Season APEX130.9
24.3Auto31.2
11.2Teleop65.5
-3.1Endgame17.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 20 |
| teleop | 72 | 25 |
| endgame | 49 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 140 | 62 |
Result
Final score
140 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 85.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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