Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.03 – 107.87

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.3 ±11.7

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 30.48Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 72.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 46.83Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±11.6

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 35.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 55.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 16.59Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1967, 253, 8404

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1967, 253, 8404

Auto

17.0 12%

Teleop

85.5 59%

Endgame

41.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 5458, 8016

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 5458, 8016

Auto

35.5 32%

Teleop

58.0 52%

Endgame

17.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.2
Score range: 83–175
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.3Season APEX230.5

17Auto35.5

85.5Teleop58

41.7Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	79	47
endgame	21	15
foul	30	0
total	151	85

Result

Final score

151 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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