Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.67 – 114.43

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 114.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±12.2

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 38.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 64.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 44.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.1 ±10.5

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 68.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 3.64Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 42.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8016, 7667, 11243

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8016, 7667, 11243

Auto

16.0 11%

Teleop

81.2 56%

Endgame

47.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6619, 1072, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6619, 1072, 8

Auto

43.3 36%

Teleop

72.6 61%

Endgame

4.1 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.7pts

Blue projected score114.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.2
Score range: 89–173
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX568.1

16Auto43.3

81.2Teleop72.6

47Endgame4.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	55
teleop	13	168
endgame	33	53
foul	0	15
total	95	291

Result

Final score

95 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 114.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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