Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.56 – 18.2

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±12.2

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 1.34Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 26.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 51.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140 ±13.9

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 1.34Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 5.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 11.72Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1967, 5458, 5728

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1967, 5458, 5728

Auto

12.7 14%

Teleop

58.1 65%

Endgame

18.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3482, 5430, 9125

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3482, 5430, 9125

Auto

10.7 45%

Teleop

11.2 47%

Endgame

1.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.6pts

Blue projected score18.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.4
Score range: -7–105
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.7Season APEX140

12.7Auto10.7

58.1Teleop11.2

18.1Endgame1.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	14
teleop	118	4
endgame	44	0
foul	0	0
total	187	18

Result

Final score

187 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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