Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.14 – 185.06

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 3.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.8 ±9.9

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 9.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 169.68Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 123.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±12.2

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 65.13Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 53.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 66.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 294, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 294, 2659

Auto

57.5 19%

Teleop

171.8 57%

Endgame

73.4 24%

Strengths

· 294 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3863, 4419, 980

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3863, 4419, 980

Auto

31.6 17%

Teleop

94.7 52%

Endgame

54.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score303.1pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.1
Score range: 151–337
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.8Season APEX286

57.5Auto31.6

171.8Teleop94.7

73.4Endgame54.3

31Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	52
teleop	160	80
endgame	77	54
foul	0	0
total	297	186

Result

Final score

297 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 3.5 pts

Match videos

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