Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.03 – 201.87

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.8 ±9.9

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 15.63Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 175.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 129.03Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±10.4

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 15.08Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 85.35Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 101.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 294, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

320 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 294, 2659

Auto

58.8 18%

Teleop

184.8 58%

Endgame

75.9 24%

Strengths

· 294 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 696, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 696, 7419

Auto

42.6 22%

Teleop

109.4 55%

Endgame

45.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score320pts

Blue projected score201.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.2
Score range: 168–354
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.8Season APEX407.4

58.8Auto42.6

184.8Teleop109.4

75.9Endgame45.9

26Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	82
teleop	104	132
endgame	56	30
foul	0	0
total	214	244

Result

Final score

214 – 244

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 pts

Match videos

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