Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
178.39 – 159.45
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
213 – 190
Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±12.2
Season APEX 80Event APEX 63.24Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 51.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 63.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 38.78Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 77.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 43.17Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3863, 4419, 980
61
/ 100 compatProjected
178.4 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3863, 4419, 980
Auto
30.6 18%
Teleop
94.9 55%
Endgame
47.6 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7607, 5012, 2543
58
/ 100 compatProjected
159.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 7607, 5012, 2543
Auto
44.4 28%
Teleop
69.1 44%
Endgame
43.0 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score178.4pts
Blue projected score159.5pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 18.9
- Score range
- 126–211
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
286Season APEX257.1
30.6Auto44.4
94.9Teleop69.1
47.6Endgame43
45Consistency44
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 40 |
| teleop | 91 | 93 |
| endgame | 84 | 57 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 213 | 190 |
Result
Final score
213 – 190
Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts
Match videos
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