Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.85 – 229.3

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±11

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 51.77Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 40.54Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 53.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.4 ±10.5

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 35.53Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 95.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 98.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 399, 3749, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 3749, 1622

Auto

31.4 21%

Teleop

68.9 47%

Endgame

46.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1452, 4738, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1452, 4738, 8119

Auto

36.2 16%

Teleop

128.3 56%

Endgame

63.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.9pts

Blue projected score229.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.5
Score range: 112–263
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 186.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX427.4

31.4Auto36.2

68.9Teleop128.3

46.2Endgame63.1

43Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	46
teleop	75	118
endgame	21	34
foul	0	0
total	115	198

Result

Final score

115 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Match videos

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