Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.2 – 146.59

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.7 ±9.9

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 155.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 102.47Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 34.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±12.2

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 38.82Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 73.22Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 34.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 2637, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 2637, 8768

Auto

61.5 22%

Teleop

151.2 53%

Endgame

70.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2543, 5012, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 5012, 7607

Auto

43.3 30%

Teleop

66.3 45%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.2pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.6
Score range: 114–325
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.7Season APEX257.1

61.5Auto43.3

151.2Teleop66.3

70.9Endgame37

3Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	191	82
endgame	62	66
foul	0	15
total	304	212

Result

Final score

304 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Match videos

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