Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
362.95 – 179.29
91%9%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
405 – 180
Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.6 ±9.9
Season APEX 315Event APEX 159.87Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 159.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60Event APEX 43.74Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±12.2
Season APEX 80Event APEX 62.69Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 52.01Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 64.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2073, 687, 1515
80
/ 100 compatProjected
363 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 2073, 687, 1515
Auto
58.7 16%
Teleop
231.2 64%
Endgame
68.9 19%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3863, 4419, 980
61
/ 100 compatProjected
179.3 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 3863, 4419, 980
Auto
31.2 18%
Teleop
94.2 55%
Endgame
46.9 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score363pts
Blue projected score179.3pts
Red win probability91%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 183.7
- Score range
- 146–396
- Upset likelihood
- 9%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
602.6Season APEX286
58.7Auto31.2
231.2Teleop94.2
68.9Endgame46.9
44Consistency42
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 29 |
| teleop | 213 | 100 |
| endgame | 94 | 51 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 405 | 180 |
Result
Final score
405 – 180
Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts
Match videos
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