Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.97 – 174.74

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.4 ±10.5

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 39.25Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 99.06Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 102.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±10.4

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 5.92Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 75.54Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 93.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1452, 4738, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1452, 4738, 8119

Auto

40.2 17%

Teleop

137.2 58%

Endgame

61.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 696, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 696, 7419

Auto

41.7 24%

Teleop

89.0 51%

Endgame

44.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241pts

Blue projected score174.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 142–274
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 182.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.4Season APEX407.4

40.2Auto41.7

137.2Teleop89

61Endgame44

36Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	47
teleop	102	185
endgame	76	59
foul	0	20
total	200	311

Result

Final score

200 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 pts

Match videos

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