Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.4 – 309.22

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±10.4

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 19.9Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 89.99Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 105.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.8 ±9.9

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 11.69Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 171.94Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 125.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 696, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 696, 7419

Auto

52.7 25%

Teleop

115.4 54%

Endgame

44.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9706, 294, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 294, 2659

Auto

59.3 19%

Teleop

171.6 56%

Endgame

77.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.4pts

Blue projected score309.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.8
Score range: 180–344
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.4Season APEX635.8

52.7Auto59.3

115.4Teleop171.6

44.7Endgame77.4

31Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	29
teleop	30	173
endgame	20	49
foul	5	20
total	114	271

Result

Final score

114 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Match videos

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