Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.43 – 369.21

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±10.4

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 18.29Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 88.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 103.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.6 ±9.9

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 161.45Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 161.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 45.87Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 696, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 696, 7419

Auto

49.2 24%

Teleop

115.0 55%

Endgame

43.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 2073, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 2073, 1515

Auto

61.2 17%

Teleop

221.4 61%

Endgame

77.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.4pts

Blue projected score369.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.8
Score range: 176–403
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 659 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.4Season APEX602.6

49.2Auto61.2

115Teleop221.4

43.1Endgame77.8

26Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	81
teleop	120	249
endgame	55	74
foul	0	5
total	250	409

Result

Final score

250 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Match videos

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