Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.39 – 200.67

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±13.5

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 73.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 8Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.5 ±11.1

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 80.03Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 54.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 66Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 1622, 9471

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 294, 1622, 9471

Auto

14.7 15%

Teleop

54.2 54%

Endgame

32.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2637, 6060, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2637, 6060, 1515

Auto

39.8 20%

Teleop

116.5 58%

Endgame

43.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score200.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.3
Score range: 70–232
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 170.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.1Season APEX356.5

14.7Auto39.8

54.2Teleop116.5

32Endgame43.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	18
teleop	97	50
endgame	3	36
foul	0	0
total	132	104

Result

Final score

132 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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