Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.97 – 195.68

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358 ±11.6

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 87.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 47.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 51.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.9 ±12.4

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 45.11Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 87.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 63.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8768, 980, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 980, 589

Auto

38.4 21%

Teleop

113.3 61%

Endgame

32.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3863, 846, 9615

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3863, 846, 9615

Auto

27.8 14%

Teleop

123.1 63%

Endgame

43.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186pts

Blue projected score195.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 154–228
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358Season APEX340.9

38.4Auto27.8

113.3Teleop123.1

32.8Endgame43.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	54	5
endgame	57	14
foul	5	15
total	154	49

Result

Final score

154 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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