Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.25 – 245.05

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11.6

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 37.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 66.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 20.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.6 ±13.5

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -0.99Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 165.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 80.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 589, 5012, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 589, 5012, 6060

Auto

33.6 27%

Teleop

51.9 42%

Endgame

38.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9471, 687, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9471, 687, 696

Auto

50.8 21%

Teleop

147.8 61%

Endgame

45.6 19%

Strengths

· 687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.3pts

Blue projected score245.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.8
Score range: 92–277
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX404.6

33.6Auto50.8

51.9Teleop147.8

38.6Endgame45.6

49Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	71
teleop	35	78
endgame	56	45
foul	0	0
total	136	194

Result

Final score

136 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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