Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.95 – 225.42

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.8 ±12.2

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 25.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 34.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 102.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.2 ±10.5

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 23.28Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 144.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 57.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6060, 5869, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 5869, 7419

Auto

37.5 23%

Teleop

75.8 46%

Endgame

50.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7607, 846, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 846, 5012

Auto

61.3 27%

Teleop

106.5 47%

Endgame

58.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score225.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.5
Score range: 130–257
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.8Season APEX377.2

37.5Auto61.3

75.8Teleop106.5

50.2Endgame58.6

42Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	57
teleop	50	193
endgame	21	75
foul	10	15
total	131	340

Result

Final score

131 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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