Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.32 – 76.84

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±11

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 20.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 100.07Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 49.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±12.2

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 38.73Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 28.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 9.94Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 4738, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 4738, 1622

Auto

30.8 18%

Teleop

93.3 55%

Endgame

46.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 8768, 691

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 8768, 691

Auto

20.5 27%

Teleop

39.3 52%

Endgame

16.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.3pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.5
Score range: 45–202
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.1Season APEX201.8

30.8Auto20.5

93.3Teleop39.3

46.7Endgame16.5

21Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	28
teleop	34	62
endgame	59	31
foul	15	5
total	134	126

Result

Final score

134 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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