Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.97 – 120.43

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.7 ±11.7

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 38.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 165.84Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 34.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.7 ±11

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 51.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 52.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 16.47Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5869, 294, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5869, 294, 1452

Auto

45.8 19%

Teleop

135.9 57%

Endgame

56.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 399, 1622, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 1622, 2404

Auto

22.2 18%

Teleop

62.4 51%

Endgame

36.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.5
Score range: 85–274
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.7Season APEX229.7

45.8Auto22.2

135.9Teleop62.4

56.7Endgame36.6

71Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	17
teleop	150	73
endgame	68	43
foul	0	0
total	257	133

Result

Final score

257 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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