Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.19 – 68.98

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.5 ±9.9

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 95.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 168.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 67.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±12.2

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 43.36Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -12.74Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 38.36Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 294, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8119, 294, 5012

Auto

72.5 22%

Teleop

193.4 58%

Endgame

69.7 21%

Strengths

· 294 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1515, 2839, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1515, 2839, 589

Auto

9.1 14%

Teleop

38.2 57%

Endgame

19.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score332.2pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 263.2
Score range: 36–365
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 180.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.5Season APEX274.7

72.5Auto9.1

193.4Teleop38.2

69.7Endgame19.9

51Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	28
teleop	270	49
endgame	78	6
foul	5	0
total	419	83

Result

Final score

419 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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