Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.63 – 241.53

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 108.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±11.2

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 144.29Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 48.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 48.15Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.5 ±9.8

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 156.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 11.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 73.95Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2659, 5869, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2659, 5869, 3749

Auto

45.4 19%

Teleop

132.9 55%

Endgame

61.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 7607, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 7607, 696

Auto

65.3 27%

Teleop

144.5 59%

Endgame

33.6 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score240.6pts

Blue projected score241.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 209–274
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.1Season APEX450.5

45.4Auto65.3

132.9Teleop144.5

61.3Endgame33.6

12Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	27
teleop	58	213
endgame	60	127
foul	0	0
total	150	367

Result

Final score

150 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 108.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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