Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.59 – 225.02

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±12.8

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 50.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 59.32Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 3.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479 ±11.2

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 12.53Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 163.24Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 49.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1622, 3863, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 3863, 11096

Auto

7.8 7%

Teleop

76.7 71%

Endgame

23.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3341, 2073, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3341, 2073, 4419

Auto

42.9 20%

Teleop

102.0 48%

Endgame

68.2 32%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score225pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.4
Score range: 81–257
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.2Season APEX479

7.8Auto42.9

76.7Teleop102

23.9Endgame68.2

41Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	43
teleop	69	152
endgame	57	39
foul	0	0
total	142	234

Result

Final score

142 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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