Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.69 – 180.08

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±11.6

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 57.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 103.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 20.16Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±11.1

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 100.92Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 37.24Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 41.92Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 980, 7419, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 980, 7419, 9706

Auto

47.6 27%

Teleop

91.9 52%

Endgame

37.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2637, 1452, 399

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2637, 1452, 399

Auto

34.4 20%

Teleop

92.2 53%

Endgame

46.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.7pts

Blue projected score180.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 148–214
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX337.8

47.6Auto34.4

91.9Teleop92.2

37.2Endgame46.6

20Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	56
teleop	99	77
endgame	83	49
foul	0	0
total	230	182

Result

Final score

230 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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