Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.89 – 69.72

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.8 ±12.4

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 55.84Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -18.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 171.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±12.2

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 21.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 48.97Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX -0.32Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3863, 2839, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3863, 2839, 294

Auto

24.0 12%

Teleop

137.3 67%

Endgame

44.1 21%

Strengths

· 294 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6060, 3749, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 3749, 11096

Auto

24.4 35%

Teleop

26.1 38%

Endgame

18.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score69.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.2
Score range: 38–241
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.8Season APEX230.4

24Auto24.4

137.3Teleop26.1

44.1Endgame18.3

87Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	16
teleop	145	35
endgame	54	57
foul	0	0
total	254	108

Result

Final score

254 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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