Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.35 – 171.29

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±11

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 54.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX -12.54Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 45.9Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426 ±12.4

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 8.88Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 1.48Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 160.93Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5012, 2404, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 2404, 4419

Auto

32.9 37%

Teleop

25.8 29%

Endgame

30.5 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9615, 691, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 691, 2073

Auto

32.3 19%

Teleop

97.5 58%

Endgame

37.0 22%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score171.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.9
Score range: 56–203
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.4Season APEX426

32.9Auto32.3

25.8Teleop97.5

30.5Endgame37

64Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	37
teleop	73	115
endgame	41	71
foul	0	15
total	152	238

Result

Final score

152 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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