Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.7 – 135.27

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±14.9

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 14.77Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -3.65Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 42.58Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±11.7

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 25.97Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 101.78Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 7.52Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6658, 9471, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6658, 9471, 7607

Auto

16.9 35%

Teleop

21.0 43%

Endgame

10.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9615, 2637, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9615, 2637, 9706

Auto

34.4 26%

Teleop

61.0 47%

Endgame

34.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.7pts

Blue projected score135.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.6
Score range: 19–170
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.5Season APEX335.6

16.9Auto34.4

21Teleop61

10.4Endgame34.8

44Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	38
teleop	11	130
endgame	9	54
foul	0	0
total	28	222

Result

Final score

28 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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