Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.05 – 134.36

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.3 ±10.5

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -1.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 137.19Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 10.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262 ±14.9

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 22.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -5.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 117.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 2659, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 2659, 8768

Auto

47.5 33%

Teleop

80.9 56%

Endgame

15.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3341, 9471, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3341, 9471, 7419

Auto

37.3 29%

Teleop

65.9 52%

Endgame

23.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score134.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.7
Score range: 102–178
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.3Season APEX262

47.5Auto37.3

80.9Teleop65.9

15.6Endgame23.8

17Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	30
teleop	143	6
endgame	70	18
foul	0	0
total	260	54

Result

Final score

260 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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