Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.49 – 126.33

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.2 ±12.7

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 51.59Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 52.5Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 60.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±12.2

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 37.76Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 59.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 29.15Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 399, 1515, 5869

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 399, 1515, 5869

Auto

21.8 13%

Teleop

88.5 54%

Endgame

54.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2543, 589, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 589, 9706

Auto

24.3 19%

Teleop

51.4 41%

Endgame

50.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score126.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 94–196
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 177.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.2Season APEX309

21.8Auto24.3

88.5Teleop51.4

54.5Endgame50.7

47Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	48	40
endgame	37	18
foul	0	0
total	107	78

Result

Final score

107 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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