Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.87 – 181.75

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.3 ±9.9

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 133.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 156.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 58.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±11.7

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 33.5Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 82.92Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 65.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 687, 980

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 687, 980

Auto

76.0 23%

Teleop

200.1 59%

Endgame

61.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6658, 696, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6658, 696, 1622

Auto

40.8 23%

Teleop

95.6 54%

Endgame

41.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score348.9pts

Blue projected score181.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.1
Score range: 150–381
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 176.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.3Season APEX262.2

76Auto40.8

200.1Teleop95.6

61.3Endgame41.6

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	17
teleop	197	42
endgame	90	1
foul	0	0
total	374	60

Result

Final score

374 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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