Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.35 – 226.57

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 123.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±11.1

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 30.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 121.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 52.92Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±10.5

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 41.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 87.91Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 96.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8768, 8119, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 8119, 1452

Auto

37.3 18%

Teleop

125.1 61%

Endgame

42.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5012, 2637, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 2637, 4738

Auto

41.6 19%

Teleop

106.9 48%

Endgame

73.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.4pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 173–259
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 176.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX470.7

37.3Auto41.6

125.1Teleop106.9

42.2Endgame73.1

10Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	76
teleop	9	167
endgame	6	59
foul	0	0
total	34	302

Result

Final score

34 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 123.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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