Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.45 – 184.12

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11.7

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 80.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 16.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 66.44Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.8 ±12.4

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 38.54Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX -2.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 148.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1622, 9615, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 9615, 589

Auto

25.5 16%

Teleop

88.7 55%

Endgame

48.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2543, 11096, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 11096, 2659

Auto

52.2 29%

Teleop

88.3 49%

Endgame

38.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.5pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: 131–216
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.8Season APEX442.8

25.5Auto52.2

88.7Teleop88.3

48Endgame38.4

7Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	33	87
endgame	11	54
foul	0	0
total	65	159

Result

Final score

65 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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