Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.93 – 298.76

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 93.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428 ±10.5

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 1.96Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 73.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 108.27Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±11.2

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 92.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 52.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 153.22Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 980, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 980, 2637

Auto

34.8 21%

Teleop

82.0 49%

Endgame

51.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4738, 5869, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 5869, 687

Auto

54.3 18%

Teleop

170.4 58%

Endgame

71.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.9pts

Blue projected score298.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.8
Score range: 152–331
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 177.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428Season APEX431.8

34.8Auto54.3

82Teleop170.4

51.1Endgame71.1

13Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	41
teleop	8	209
endgame	5	84
foul	0	0
total	33	334

Result

Final score

33 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 93.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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