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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
CA District Aerospace Valley Event

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.72 – 201.67

69%31%
Actual result
Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 266

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.3 ±10.7
2637Phantom Catz
B
Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 115.17Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2543TitanBot
D
Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 41.62Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
8119TigerBotics
A
Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 108.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.1 ±10.5
687The Nerd Herd
B
Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 145.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
399Eagle Robotics
D
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 25.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
3749Team Optix
C
Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 30.46Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 2543, 8119
81
/ 100 compat
Projected
265.7 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 2637, 2543, 8119
Auto
46.2 18%
Teleop
133.5 52%
Endgame
78.0 30%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 687, 399, 3749
61
/ 100 compat
Projected
201.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 687, 399, 3749
Auto
37.4 18%
Teleop
145.5 70%
Endgame
24.8 12%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
  • · Thin endgame coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.27
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score265.7pts
Blue projected score201.7pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
64.1
Score range
170–298
Upset likelihood
31%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset
High scoring

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 179.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.3Season APEX386.1
46.2Auto37.4
133.5Teleop145.5
78Endgame24.8
28Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto5171
teleop117127
endgame5758
foul010
total225266

Result

Final score

225 – 266

Prediction missed · off by 52.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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