Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.83 – 107.2

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±10.7

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 133.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 0.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 132.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.3 ±13.3

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX -0.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 24.07Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 83.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 9615, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 294, 9615, 2659

Auto

66.8 26%

Teleop

152.8 59%

Endgame

40.0 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 691, 3341, 980

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 691, 3341, 980

Auto

38.6 41%

Teleop

40.7 43%

Endgame

14.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.8pts

Blue projected score107.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.6
Score range: 75–299
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 178.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.4Season APEX217.3

66.8Auto38.6

152.8Teleop40.7

40Endgame14.4

42Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	14
teleop	241	4
endgame	79	0
foul	0	0
total	389	18

Result

Final score

389 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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