Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.1 – 119.96

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±11.2

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 117.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 43.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 13.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.8 ±11.7

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 37.04Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 51.85Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 31.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 589, 6658

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 589, 6658

Auto

31.6 20%

Teleop

81.7 50%

Endgame

48.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5869, 4419, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5869, 4419, 7607

Auto

37.3 30%

Teleop

45.4 36%

Endgame

41.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.1pts

Blue projected score120pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.1
Score range: 88–206
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 178.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX238.8

31.6Auto37.3

81.7Teleop45.4

48.6Endgame41.7

1Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	32
teleop	148	63
endgame	96	32
foul	0	0
total	291	127

Result

Final score

291 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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