Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.37 – 221.71

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±14

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 48.98Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 183.28Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -26.89Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373 ±11

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 41.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 100.59Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 80.04Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1515, 2073, 9471

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1515, 2073, 9471

Auto

17.2 8%

Teleop

136.4 66%

Endgame

52.8 26%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8768, 7419, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 7419, 4738

Auto

26.0 12%

Teleop

125.9 58%

Endgame

66.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.4pts

Blue projected score221.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 173–254
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 177.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.9Season APEX373

17.2Auto26

136.4Teleop125.9

52.8Endgame66.7

103Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	61
teleop	106	129
endgame	46	33
foul	25	15
total	218	238

Result

Final score

218 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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